A weekend Truth Social post from President Donald Trump set in motion the first steps in creating a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve, but Polymarket traders are skeptical that it will happen within the first 100 days.
As of press time, Polymarket bettors are giving a 23% chance that a strategic BTC reserve will be created within the first 100 days of the Trump presidency – or by April 30th, 2025.
Rules of the contract say that the U.S. government will need to specifically hold bitcoin – and not from confiscation – by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for this to resolve to yes. Announcements of the creation of a reserve do not count.
Chances of a reserve coming true spiked from 11% to 23% in the moments after Trump’s announcement. Another contract that asks if a reserve will be created by the end of 2025 currently has a 65% chance of resolving to yes.
Initially, Trump’s social media post announcing the creation of the…
