Markets have quickly repriced the odds of a Fed move. On prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of an October rate hike briefly spiked to nearly 50% after the CPI release before easing to about 30%. CME’s FedWatch tool showed a similar pattern: odds initially jumped to almost 47% from roughly 22%, before retreating to 26% as of writing.
“Stronger U.S. inflation data has renewed concerns that interest rates will stay higher for longer,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus. “September inflation rose to 3.7% annually, increasing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move. Institutional demand also remains fragile. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $150.5 million in outflows on October 14, reversing the previous day’s $175.7 million inflow.”
Market-making firm STS Digital said the uncertainty could weigh on liquidity across markets.
“With the next FOMC a coin flip, this uncertainty is…
