Sun pointed to the numbers. “Bitcoin’s current annualized volatility hovers around 40%, which is noticeably lower than its long-term historical levels exceeding 80%,” he said.
Ardern sees the same in the options market, where bitcoin’s annualized implied or expected volatility index, DVOL, has been pinned around 35 points.
“The shape going forward is probably a staircase — grind up, air pocket, fast repair — rather than a parabola,” he said.
Sun still isn’t ruling out big rallies and the reason lies in bitcoin’s tokenomics.
Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million, and long-term holders own a high share of it. Add to that large ETF inflows over a short period, a rapid improvement in macro liquidity, or concentrated short covering, and prices could still see sharp bullish moves, he explained.
In those cases, “marginal demand can still exert a powerful upward push on prices, potentially triggering non-linear surges.”
