What the regimes reveal
Splitting the window into bull, bear and sideways markets by the 200-day moving average sharpens the picture considerably. In bull regimes both approaches beat the plain 60/40, though the trend version retained much of the upside on a more controlled path. Bear regimes produced the widest gap. Spot exposure transmitted more of crypto’s drawdown into the broader portfolio, while the trend sleeve, designed to step away from persistent downtrends, kept losses shallower and the ride more survivable.
Sideways markets deserve more attention than they usually receive. Range-bound conditions, where prices churn without a clear direction, offer no strong trend to reward conviction and no clean rebound to rescue poor timing. Through those stretches, direct bitcoin exposure struggled to justify its added volatility, while the rules-based sleeve had a better chance of avoiding risk without reward. Real portfolios spend a…
